Meydenbauer Blog

What Might Happen to Market Performance When The Federal Reserve Cuts Interest Rates?

By Sean McGowan – Managing Director


When the Federal Reserve (Fed) decides to cut interest rates, it often signals a significant shift in economic policy aimed at stimulating growth or responding to economic downturns. Understanding how these rate cuts may affect market performance is crucial for investors.

This blog post will explore the potential impact of Fed rate cuts on various aspects of the market, including stocks, bonds, and commodities.

1.      Understanding the Role of Interest Rates

Interest rates are a powerful tool in the Fed's monetary policy arsenal. By adjusting the federal funds rate—the interest rate at which banks lend to each other overnight—the Fed influences overall economic activity. Lowering interest rates makes borrowing cheaper for businesses and consumers, encouraging spending and investment. Conversely, raising rates typically slows down borrowing and spending to combat inflation. This is considered an expansionary fiscal policy.

2.     Historical Market Performance During Rate Cuts

Historically, market performance during periods of falling interest rates have has been mixed, depending largely on the underlying reasons for the rate cut. When the Fed cuts rates to preemptively support economic growth (a "mid-cycle adjustment"), markets often respond positively, at least in the short term.

Stock Market: In many cases, stocks rally following a rate cut, as lower borrowing costs improve corporate profits and consumer spending. However, if the falling interest rates are seen as a reaction to a deteriorating economic outlook, the initial rally may be short-lived, followed by increased volatility or a downturn.

Bonds: Lower interest rates generally lead to higher bond prices. When the Fed cuts rates, existing bonds with higher rates become more attractive, driving up their prices. The yields on new bonds issued will decrease proportionally with the new lower rates.

Commodities: The impact on commodities like gold, oil, and agricultural products can vary. Gold, for instance, often benefits from lower rates because it is seen as a hedge against currency devaluation. On the other hand, commodities dependent on economic activity, like oil, may suffer if rate cuts signal a slowing economy.

3.     Short-Term vs. Long-Term Effects

Short-Term Impact: Right after a rate cut, equity markets often react positively due to increased liquidity and lower borrowing costs. Investors may also anticipate that lower rates will boost economic growth, corporate earnings, and, subsequently, stock prices. However, if the cut is perceived as a response to significant economic weakness, initial enthusiasm can quickly give way to concerns about the underlying health of the economy.

Long-Term Impact: Longer term, the impact of rate cuts depends on how effectively they stimulate economic activity. If rate cuts successfully spur borrowing, investment, and consumer spending, they can lead to sustained economic growth and a prolonged market rally. However, if rate cuts fail to revive the economy, or if they lead to inflationary pressures, the market may eventually decline.

In conclusion, Fed rate cuts are a powerful tool that can significantly impact market performance across various asset classes. While they often lead to short-term rallies, particularly in stocks and bonds, the long-term effects depend on a variety of factors.

By understanding the dynamics of how falling interest rates affect the market, investors can better position themselves to navigate the uncertainties and opportunities that arise during these periods of economic adjustment.

 

 

Wells Fargo did not assist in the preparation of this report, and its accuracy and completeness are not guaranteed. The opinions expressed in this report are those of the author and are not necessarily those of Wells Fargo Advisors / Wells Fargo Financial Network or its affiliates. The material has been prepared or is distributed solely for information purposes and is not a solicitation or an offer to buy any security or instrument or to participate in any trading strategy. Additional information is available upon request.

The Dangers of Financial FOMO

By: Alyssa Rustik, Financial Advisor

In the ever-evolving landscape of finance, one concept seems to consistently rear its head: FOMO, or the “fear of missing out”. While this phenomenon is often associated with social media and lifestyle trends, its presence in the realm of finance can have significant consequence for individuals and investors alike.

If you haven’t yet seen the GameStop Documentary streaming on Netflix titled “Eat the Rich”, let me be the first to recommend it to you. This documentary manages to tell the complicated financial story, with a fair amount of humor and context, about the whirlwind rallies of the post-COVID 2021 stock market. From the dogecoin’s 12,000% climb in May of 2021 to the world of “meme stocks” like GameStop, rallies like this created a frenzy that saw investors rushing to get a piece of the profit.

However, despite the risk of buying high and selling low, many people joined these rallies anyway. Why? Because of the psychological phenomenon known as FOMO. At its core, financial FOMO is the anxiety or apprehension that one feels when they believe others are making profitable investments or financial decisions, and they are not. It’s that feeling of urgency to jump on the bandwagon before it’s too late, driven by the fear of being left behind or missing out on potential gains.

However, succumbing to financial FOMO can lead to a myriad of pitfalls and dangers:

1.       Impulsive Decision-Making: When driven by FOMO, individuals may rush into investment opportunities without conducting proper research or due diligence. This impulsive behavior can result in poor decision-making and ultimately, financial losses.

2.       Chasing Performance: FOMO often leads individuals to chase the latest hot stocks or trends, regardless of the longevity or long-term suitability for their investment goals. This can result in buying at inflated prices and selling as a loss when the bubble eventually bursts.

3.       Ignoring Risk: In a quest to avoid missing out on potential gains, individuals may overlook or underestimate the risks associated with certain investments. This can lead to exposure to undue risk and financial instability.

 4.       Emotional Rollercoaster: Succumbing to financial FOMO can result in heightened emotions such as anxiety, stress, and regret. These emotions can cloud judgement and hinder rational decision-making, further exacerbating the situation.

So, what can be done to mitigate the dangers of financial FOMO?

1.       Spend time not money: In the words of Madonna, “we are living in a material world”, where material possessions are often equated with success or happiness.  However, this constant desire for more “stuff” feeds our comparison culture and can lead to unsustainable spending habits. Never in history has it been easier for an individual to spend beyond their means. With one tap of a plastic card, you can unlock an instant dopamine hit that comes from buying that shiny new thing. However, that dopamine rush quickly fades, and it can feel like a never-ending cycle of falling short of fulfillment.

One of my favorite quotes comes from Sarah Ban Breathnach, the best-selling author of Simple Abundance, where she writes: “Not having money to spend, doesn’t mean we can’t have well spent moments every day”. While there is nothing wrong with buying material items, expensive clothes, or fun gadgets, shifting your focus to a pursuit of genuine experiences, authentic connections and personal growth can liberate you from the consumerist trap and contribute to longer-lasting fulfillment.

2.       Cultivating a healthy financial mindset: When it comes to being “healthy”, students are taught all about physical health, mental health, and emotional health from an early age. It is built into our school curriculums and reiterated at each grade well into adulthood. However, financial health needs to be nurtured and tended to in a similar manner. At the core of achieving financial well-being lies a healthy attitude about money. Engaging in financial education and learning from your mistakes can all contribute to cultivating a resilient financial mindset.

 To that end, regularly review your budget and credit card statements. If you do not have a budget, sit down, and make one. If you’re consistently paying out more than you’re earning, it’s time to have an honest talk with yourself about how to reset and get on a healthier financial path.
 

3.       Seek out your Financial Advisor: If you find yourself struggling to manage financial FOMO, consider seeking guidance from one of us. As your advisors, we are here to not only look after your financial assets but also mentor you. When you seek guidance from us, we can provide objective advice and help you stay grounded in your investment approach.

We will be starting a new series on our blog called “Financial Education 101” where we will continue to have our newest financial advisor, Alyssa Rustik, write pieces to educate your children and grandchildren about how they can build a strong foundation, learn how to handle money wisely, and make smarter financial choices.

The Meydenbauer Newsletter Q2 Newsletter 2024




News & Updates from our team …

As we approach the two-year anniversary of the passing of our late partner, Paul Capeloto, we remember him with honor and affection.  We often comment to each other how much he would have enjoyed the recognition and growth our team continues to earn and experience.  Paul left a deep legacy in our community as well as with each of us individually. 

His uncommon focus on building a multi-generational team, slow and steady investing and supporting growth for each member of our group is the strong foundation our team is built on.

Paul often shared amusing stories of his early years as an accountant with Moss Adams starting off as an auditor.  We’ve thought many times over the past few months that he must heartily approve of our recent addition of a Financial Advisor to our team, Alyssa Rustik. 

Alyssa too, got her start with an accounting firm as an auditor.  Like Paul, she began a similar career trajectory to his.  Alyssa launched her career in public accounting at KPMG in Seattle and then Sydney, Australia. At KPMG, she developed a proficiency in highly regulated external audits as well as conducted financial due diligence for private clients in the technology and media sector.


Alyssa is a graduate of Gonzaga University with a Bachelor of Business Administration and Accounting with a Certificate of Finance.  She was recruited her junior year of college by KPMG and has had a robust and diverse range of accounting experience with that company. 

We are pleased at the opportunity to continue to grow the expertise and capability of our team by having an advisor with a strong accounting background (not currently a practicing accountant). Alyssa is excited to join the Meydenbauer Wealth Management Group where she will guide in helping clients shape their financial future. 

In her free time, Alyssa is an avid runner, traveler, and dog lover. She now lives in Redmond, Washington where she enjoys spending time with her husband Alex, her goldendoodle, Ziggy, and her large, blended family. Please join us in welcoming Alyssa to The Meydenbauer Group!
 
Another young associate Paul would be incredibly proud is Emily Christian for completing all of her licensing requirements and education as she now serves as a fully licensed Client Associate.  Emily is not one to sit back and has just been nominated to the Wells Fargo Advisors Capstone CA development Program. We are very proud of her and appreciate her further enhancing her knowledge which overall, benefits the Team and our clients.


Paul would be absolutely over the top with the recognition our team has received as one of the best wealth management teams in the state AND our financial advisors, Sean and Tama, recognized as leading financial advisors.  We could not be prouder that Tama has again been recognized as one of the 2024 Forbes Best-In-State Women Advisors.  It is quite an honor, and we will never forget the ways that Paul sought to honor each of us when we excelled or received recognition.  When one of our long-time clients was featured in the Wells Fargo annual report, he had the article framed and gifted to the team.  As we’ve received accolades through the past couple of years, we always offer up a toast to Paul for his mentorship and inspiration.

Pictured: Emily Christian, Registered Client Associate, Alyssa Rustik, Financial Advisor, Diane Manterola, Senior Registered Client Associate, ,Nicole Christian, Senior Practice Coordinator, Tama Borriello, Managing Director, Sean McGowan, Managing Director, Kathryn Lamp, Client Associate

Also mentioned earlier was Paul’s focus on slow and steady investing.  That included avoiding complicated and expensive investment ideas and focusing equally on core investing that sought to deliver over time and smart saving and investment planning principals that may be often overlooked.  Be sure and check out recent blog entries for highlighted reads highlighting these same themes: https://www.themeydenbauergroup.com/index.htm
As always it is the highest honor we have to serve you and your family.  We are looking forward to offering continued excellence and trust in all that we do.

The Meydenbauer Wealth Management Group

2024 Forbes Top Women Wealth Advisors Best-IN-State: Awarded February 2024 Data compiled by SHOOK Research LLC based on the time period from 9/30/22-9/30/23. (Source. Forbes.com) The Forbes Top Women Wealth Advisors Best-in-State rating algorithm is based on the previous year’s industry experience, interviews. Compliance records, assets under management, revenue and other criteria by SHOOK Research, LLC. Investment performance is not a criterion. Self-completed survey was used for rating. This rating is not related to the quality of the investment advise and based solely on the disclosed criteria.
2024 – 2nd Quarter Blog Post

Sweat the Small Stuff

Five observations on smart planning to be aware of

By

 Tama Borriello

Managing Director – Investments


 

With apologies to Richard Carlson, author of the well-known 1997 novel “Don’t Sweat the Small Stuff”, financial planning and investing is one of those activities where the ‘small stuff’ can make all the difference. While the ‘big stuff’ such as asset allocation and risk management are all important aspects of growing your nest egg, often the ‘small stuff’ gets overlooked. 

As we all know, hindsight can be brilliant when applied to past decisions.  However, wouldn’t it be nice to get it right the first time?  Here are five small but impactful decisions that you can make that do not require any hindsight.  In fact, these can help you avoid some of our most observed common financial mistakes.

1. Too many eggs in one basket - Having too much of your wealth in one single asset should be a pre-recorded message for many of us “west coasters”.  The first stock I ever bought in my twenties was Microsoft and after we have witnessed the growth of that company, and other tech-oriented companies over the decades the above advice can ring hollow.  Yes, there is a lot of potential wealth to be built in company stock and longtime held stock.  Yes, there are capital gains taxes to pay if sold.  And on the other side of the coin, yes, it is okay to take a win.  When you know that you have played the risk game and won, why not lock in some profits, and possibly redeploy into a lower risk investment?

2. There is always a chance of rain -Carry umbrella coverage that really covers your assets.  This is so often overlooked, I almost listed it as number one on the list.  We’ve had clients discover the hard way due to an auto accident or insurance claim against their business that they were not insured enough personally.  Umbrella insurance is one of the least expensive ways to make sure that your hard-earned assets are safe from litigation and settlements.

3. Taking advantage of a personal tax break - Tax planning between your retirement year and ages 70 (social security begins) and 73 (when IRS Required Minimum Distributions – RMD) begin is an overlooked opportunity for potentially taking advantage of a lower income tax rate.  This is an opportunity within a limited window of time that can save you money that would otherwise have gone to taxes.  Work with your financial advisor and accountant to determine optimal tax brackets and take advantage of this “sweet spot” for both ordinary income distributions from a retirement plan at a lower tax bracket, as well as the 0% - 15% tax bracket on capital gains if applicable.

4. Smart giving – Another way to reduce/eliminate taxes is to use your RMD amount from an IRA as a charitable contribution.  The contribution counts towards satisfying your RMD requirement (thus reducing taxes) and potentially reduces the balance of your retirement plan (if using the approach from age 70 and ½) from future RMD’s.  If you already make charitable contributions to an approved charity and are over the age of 70 and ½, it can be a smart tax planning technique (depending on your charitable deduction levels, so consult with your CPA).  Also, in the “smart giving” section is to be aware of the one-time tax benefit of setting up a Donor Advised Fund (DAF), which then allows you to gift over future years while maximizing the deduction in a higher tax year.

5.Convert an old 529 plan into a Roth for the beneficiary.  There is a list of requirements around this, but if you have set up a 529 college savings plan that is more than 15 years old, you may be able to convert a portion to a Roth retirement plan on behalf of the beneficiary.  This is a great way to get started saving for retirement.  Contact our team with questions on eligibility.

 

Wells Fargo Advisors does not provide tax or legal advice.

The Meydenbauer Newsletter

Q1 Newsletter 2024

 

Nicole Christian-Practice Coordinator, Tama Borriello–Managing Director, Diane Manterola-Senior Registered Client Associate, Sean McGowan-Managing Director, Kathryn Lamp-Client Associate and Emily Christian-Client Associate



News & Updates from our team …

Our team and principal partners have had quite a bit of recognition from various sources over the past few years, and most recently from Forbes.  In reading about the methodology that company independently uses to build their “best of” lists, they mention that based on their research, “…the very best advisors are laser focused on having a positive impact on their clients’ lives; they want to add meaning and help them live better lives.”  

We could not have articulated better, the ethos of our team and results of our partner, Sean McGowan as he exemplifies an advisor who is focused on impactful guidance that is always in our clients’ best interests. Congratulations to our partner, Sean McGowan, acknowledged as one of Forbes Best – In – State Wealth Advisors for 2023.  This is a tremendous accomplishment, and it is a testament to his hard work, dedication, and commitment to our clients.  Sean has taken leadership in his approach of taking the time to understand individual needs and circumstances to help individuals and families reach their goals.  As anyone knows who reaches out to him, he is always available with good advice and good cheer!



Our team continues to enhance education and professional licensing and accreditation.  We are thrilled to congratulate Emily Christian on successfully passing her FINRA SIE exam, and as the icing on the cake turned right around and passed her FINRA Series 7 exam and her FINRA Series 66 exam.  The FINRA SIE, FINRA Series 7 and FINRA Series 66 examinations are very challenging and demonstrate mastery of many different trading and financial planning concepts.  Emily’s success reflects her commitment to her career in financial services and her desire to provide the best possible service to our clients.  We are proud to have Emily on our team, you may already know what an asset she is to The Meydenbauer Group family of clients and team members.



Our Practice Coordinator, Nicole Christian, was nominated to join the Wells Fargo Women’s Initiative Group.  We are proud that she is representing our team in supporting women in finance as well as offering her leadership for volunteer and nonprofit events that benefit our community. 




Over the past twenty plus years, our team has quietly focused on providing exceptional service and best interest advice to our clients.  We have never considered our approach as anything but the only way to service our clients.  We were recently asked to participate in a company forum to discuss our holistic approach and how that has benefited and streamlined life for many of our clients.  Both Nicole and Sean spoke at the forum and shared our simple path to truly listening and understanding to help our clients plan for both the expected future, as well as the unexpected.  Sean recently wrote in our blog about his own unexpected events and the importance of planning for all events in a prudent manner. (see below)


The Meydenbauer Group



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• The Forbes Best-in-State Wealth Advisors rating algorithm is based on the previous year’s industry experience, interviews, compliance records, assets under management, revenue and other criteria by SHOOK Research, LLC. Investment performance is not a criterion. Self-completed survey was used for rating. This rating is not related to the quality of the investment advice and based solely on the disclosed criteria.



Thoughts On Financial Strategy Going Forward...

By
 Tama Borriello
Managing Director – Investments
And
Sean McGowan
Managing Director - Investments



2023 was a year in which traditional indicators pointed to mediocre stock market returns with hardly any of Wall Street’s experts predicting the notably strong results the market experienced. 

2023 was also unusual in that more than half of the 23.8% gain in the S&P 500 was driven by five stocks. Rallies in those companies accounted for nearly 55% of the gains in the S&P 500.  To put a finer point on it, just three S&P 500 sectors (Tech, Communication Services and Consumer Discretionary) accounted for nearly 80% of the entire index gains. This has primarily been driven by the business case for Artificial Intelligence (A.I.) and excellent earnings associated with these companies.
 
While market concentration is at all-time highs, we also observe that valuations of the above listed companies are not exceeding historical metrics, and one could argue that their forward PE’s (Price to Earnings metrics) are still appealing - relatively speaking.  They certainly have real earnings being generated.  After watching a few market cycles in our careers with similar jubilation though, we are also paying close attention to the other 495 stocks in the S&P 500 and are willing to ask the questions, “What could go wrong?” or “What could improve returns for the other S&P 500 companies?”.  While we cannot predict the future, we can orient a portfolio to take advantage of the ebb and flow of market cycles.

While we do see that there are real earnings behind the outperformers of the stock market, we also observe the following.  Today we are approaching a juncture in the market where the multiple is not only high, but also rare.  As of February 23rd, the S&P 500 was trading at 23 times 2024 S&P 500 EPS of $243/share.  We are also taking into consideration a recent rebound in important inflation metrics, the Fed extending the timing of rate cuts from March to June, reducing the targeted number of rate cuts we expect to see in 2024, and weaker consumer spending.

So, the next question many are asking is what to do with a traditional balanced and diversified portfolio when just a few stocks are comprising the bulk of the return in the market?   Our investing process has always focused on balanced diversification, and this is the way we manage our personal investments as well.  We believe that approach pays off over time and helps to offset market risk. When we hear, “It’s different this time”, we remember the last few markets euphoria that resulted in painful portfolio losses.  We have sought to replace holdings where we can improve risk metrics or take advantage of valuations while focusing on the following:

We believe this is a time to stick to your plan, stay consistent with your portfolio guidelines and focus on prudent opportunities.  In an economic world of a 5.33% fed funds rate, core inflation above 3.8%, slightly slowing economic growth, commercial real estate risks, two major global conflicts and a market environment of new highs… this seems like a time to stay the course with one’s allocations.

As for our team and strategic investment planning on behalf of you and your family, we are devoted to working through market uncertainties and value the trust you have put in us.

You have our unwavering support in our commitment to guiding you and your family’s nest egg through the unknowns of the stock market and vital financial life decisions.

Wells Fargo Advisors did not assist in the preparation of this report and its accuracy and completeness are not guaranteed. The opinions expressed in this report are those of the author(s) and are not necessarily those of Wells Fargo Advisors or its affiliates. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Additional information is available upon request.


www.newyorkifed.org/markets/regerence-rates/effr

ycharts.com/indicators/us core inflation rate#:~:text=US%20Core%20Inflation%20Rate%20is,the%20health%20of%20the%20economy

 

Are you prepared?

By Sean McGowan


I had an unfortunate mountain biking accident recently that made me re-think things in life. One would surmise many of you have had inflection points that have hit you for one reason or another.

A notable one for a family member of mine is when my mother-in-law was recently diagnosed with cancer. We talked, as our team is her financial advisors, and she said she wanted to beat the cancer and then get to really living.  She booked a tropical vacation and another European vacation for soon after her chemo was to be considered over. Her words, “this reminds me to get to living”.

While I was in throws of my recent calamity in the emergency room, my financial planning brain had a different response and one I think many would benefit from hearing.

My thoughts did of course go to the, “I’ll be missing out on that this summer” and similar dialogue.  However, as I listened to the doctors and nurses around me and heard the word “lucky” repeatedly I quickly shifted to my planning brain and was thinking about things quite differently.

As noted by the ER doctor, my bicycle helmet likely saved my life, or at least staved off brain trauma. So, what if it had not?  This opens a financial planners can of proverbial worms!

Does my spouse know where I put the life insurance policy papers?  Did I sign up for long term disability at the last HR enrollment period?  Does my wife know where I hid the key to the safe to get out our Wills? For that matter, does my son know how to run the lawn mower?!?!?!

My brain started thinking deeper and deeper about what I possibly put off in planning expecting that nothing bad ever happens to me. Or, as the old country song from Travis Tritt goes, “I’m 10 feet tall and bulletproof”. 

Reality is, even as a tenured financial advisor, I had not kept up on these things.  These “things” our group deals with every day and should be honed personally. Sincerely, a lot of this is just good communication. But, once again something we all take for granted.

While I sat with my thoughts, I remembered a plan our team devised a few years back to help clients know who to talk to and where things are located.  Thus, an idea for everyone to remedy at least some level of confidence when things go awry.

Thus, make a list and give a copy to your partner or another trusted person.  That list should contain account numbers and contact information for each account, as well as information on wills, trusts, attorney names, etc.

Obviously, there is a lot more data you can add to the list like logins or passwords. However, even a short list like this can help your family or friends tremendously.