Thoughts On Financial Strategy Going Forward...
By
Tama Borriello
Managing Director – Investments
And
Sean McGowan
Managing Director - Investments
2023 was a year in which traditional indicators pointed to mediocre stock market returns with hardly any of Wall Street’s experts predicting the notably strong results the market experienced.
2023 was also unusual in that more than half of the 23.8% gain in the S&P 500 was driven by five stocks. Rallies in those companies accounted for nearly 55% of the gains in the S&P 500. To put a finer point on it, just three S&P 500 sectors (Tech, Communication Services and Consumer Discretionary) accounted for nearly 80% of the entire index gains. This has primarily been driven by the business case for Artificial Intelligence (A.I.) and excellent earnings associated with these companies.
While market concentration is at all-time highs, we also observe that valuations of the above listed companies are not exceeding historical metrics, and one could argue that their forward PE’s (Price to Earnings metrics) are still appealing - relatively speaking. They certainly have real earnings being generated. After watching a few market cycles in our careers with similar jubilation though, we are also paying close attention to the other 495 stocks in the S&P 500 and are willing to ask the questions, “What could go wrong?” or “What could improve returns for the other S&P 500 companies?”. While we cannot predict the future, we can orient a portfolio to take advantage of the ebb and flow of market cycles.
While we do see that there are real earnings behind the outperformers of the stock market, we also observe the following. Today we are approaching a juncture in the market where the multiple is not only high, but also rare. As of February 23rd, the S&P 500 was trading at 23 times 2024 S&P 500 EPS of $243/share. We are also taking into consideration a recent rebound in important inflation metrics, the Fed extending the timing of rate cuts from March to June, reducing the targeted number of rate cuts we expect to see in 2024, and weaker consumer spending.
So, the next question many are asking is what to do with a traditional balanced and diversified portfolio when just a few stocks are comprising the bulk of the return in the market? Our investing process has always focused on balanced diversification, and this is the way we manage our personal investments as well. We believe that approach pays off over time and helps to offset market risk. When we hear, “It’s different this time”, we remember the last few markets euphoria that resulted in painful portfolio losses. We have sought to replace holdings where we can improve risk metrics or take advantage of valuations while focusing on the following:
We believe this is a time to stick to your plan, stay consistent with your portfolio guidelines and focus on prudent opportunities. In an economic world of a 5.33% fed funds rate, core inflation above 3.8%, slightly slowing economic growth, commercial real estate risks, two major global conflicts and a market environment of new highs… this seems like a time to stay the course with one’s allocations.
As for our team and strategic investment planning on behalf of you and your family, we are devoted to working through market uncertainties and value the trust you have put in us.
You have our unwavering support in our commitment to guiding you and your family’s nest egg through the unknowns of the stock market and vital financial life decisions.
Wells Fargo Advisors did not assist in the preparation of this report and its accuracy and completeness are not guaranteed. The opinions expressed in this report are those of the author(s) and are not necessarily those of Wells Fargo Advisors or its affiliates. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Additional information is available upon request.
www.newyorkifed.org/markets/regerence-rates/effr
ycharts.com/indicators/us core inflation rate#:~:text=US%20Core%20Inflation%20Rate%20is,the%20health%20of%20the%20economy